Competitive Warhammer 40k players that attended tournaments this weekend were braced to face a daunting new foe – the Space Marines, energized and empowered by their brand new codex, with a host of daunting stat upgrades. But has the meta actually been rewritten in their favor? Thanks to data analysis by redditor u/communalnapkin, it seems that they are performing well, but predictions that some Warhammer 40k factions would be wiped out of the game may have been premature.
The data comes from 19 single-player tournaments, with a minimum of 21 players, and five or more rounds, which took place from October 9-11. 98 out of the 850 players fielded codex Space Marines, winning 54% of their games. That puts them right at the top end of the 45-55% zone the Warhammer 40k designers try to target when balancing armies.
The percentage of players that won at least their first four games (their 4-0 start percentage) was a respectable 9%, and 19% of Marine players lost fewer than two games overall. Most impressive, Space Marine players won five out of the nineteen tournaments, giving 5% of Marine players a first-place finish.
That is, unquestionably, very good. But it’s worth situating this in the context of other factions, and particularly fan predictions about which factions were going to be destroyed by the new meta. I’ll summarize the most interesting points, but I encourage you to look at communalnapkin’s post in the r/warhammercompetitive subreddit, which gives the full stats.
First, the most accurate prediction of doom – Astra Militarum were nowhere to be seen. They had an atrocious overall win rate of 39%, no 4-0 starts, and all 29 players lost at least two of their games. Raise a glass for all those who dutifully died for the Emperor this weekend. The Aeldari crept into the bottom end of the “balanced” win rate bracket with a 46% win rate, but likewise didn’t manage a 4-0 start.
Things are less clear cut for some other factions. The Genestealer Cults had a very poor 43% win rate, but managed one 4-0 start – and with just nine players, that gave them a higher 4-0 start percentage than the Space Marines, at 11%.
Some xenos factions predicted to be exterminated actually beat the Marines on some metrics. The Tyranids – widely predicted to be defenseless against the embiggened Codex Marines – won 55% of their games. Their 4-0 rate was less impressive than the Space Marines, at under 5%, but it’s still on the board, and they managed one tournament win from 43 players.
The Drukhari performed far better than feared, with a 54% win rate, and a muscular 18% 4-0 start. That’s the same rate as their tournament wins, with two first place finishes from just 11 players – which gives them a wild 18% tournament win rate.
As if to illustrate the importance of looking at all the data, and the perils of relying on small sample sizes, three Imperial Agents players (0.35% of the meta) had the highest win rate of all, 56%. Similarly, the standalone Deathwatch were almost totally absent, with just two players and a perfect 50% win rate.
What may be most surprising is the poor performances from certain Space Marine chapters. The upgraded Dark Angels and Space Wolves have been greatly feared, but they had win rates of 43% and 44% respectively. Among 47 players, the Dark Angels had just one 4-0 finish – a 2% rate – while the Space Wolves had none.
I could spend thousands of words waving curious data points at you but you’re best off reading communalnapkin’s original post if you want to go into that level of detail. I’d treat the data with a little caution, as the sample size is small and this is the very first outing for the new Space Marines. People playing with them and against them are working largely off theory – soon that’ll be tempered by experience.
Have you faced off against the new Space Marines yet, in a tournament or in a friendly game, or have you fielded them? What has your experience been like? Come and share any tactical insights you’ve gleaned in the Wargamer Discord community. Our Astra Militarum players are feeling particularly dispirited.
Source: Wargamer
