Games Workshop has advised investors that it will smash its revenue predictions for the quarter, and is on track to earn almost as much licensing revenue in the six months to December as it did in the entirety of the previous financial year. Though the firm hasn’t provided any explanations for the unexpected boom, Wargamer believes the popularity of the videogame Space Marine 2 is likely the cause.
Games Workshop splits its accounts into two main sections: core revenue from the sales of its miniatures for Warhammer 40,000, Age of Sigmar, other games, and ancillary products like the popular Horus Heresy books or paints for miniatures; and licensing revenue from third parties using the Warhammer IP to make T-shirts, action figures, scented candles, and videogames like Warhammer 40k: Space Marine 2.
On Friday, Games Workshop published a brief trading update to investors on its corporate website, advising them the firm is on track to make a lot more money than it had planned for in the six months to December 1. It estimates a profit before tax of at least $150 million (£120 million), $30 million more than it made during the same six months in the previous financial year.
The previous trading update on September 18 said that revenue from June to the end of August had been totally in line with expectations, which means this surge in income has all arrived between September and December.
Games Workshop’s licensing revenue has risen rapidly. From June to November 2024 the firm expects to earn $37.5 million (£30 million) in licensing revenue, $21.25 million more than it made in the same period the previous year. If this bears out, by the end of December the firm will have received more licensing revenue than it did in the whole previous year.
We think it’s most likely that Space Marine 2, which was published by Saber Interactive on September 9, is the driving force behind the massive boom in licensing income. Though there was some buzz around the game before launch, it has outperformed expectations. Developer Saber Interactive claims at least four million people have bought the game – it has a well-deserved spot on our guide to the best Warhammer 40k games of all time.
GW books guaranteed income from licensing deals in the quarter that the project is signed off, so there is an outside chance that a newly signed project is the actual cause of the sudden boom in licensing revenue. Negotiations around the Warhammer 40k Henry Cavill film deal with Amazon studios are on course for a December deadline, but if that had been signed off, we would expect there to be an official announcement.
Core revenue from the sale of miniatures is also expected to reach $325 million (£260 million) by December 1, $30 million than the same six months last year. The last time the firm saw such a large one-quarter leap in sales was following the release of the phenomenally popular 10th edition of Warhammer 40k in June 2023, an unprecedented event at the time.
Games Workshop has released popular products since the start of September, including the new edition of skirmish spin-off game Warhammer 40k Kill Team, and the rules and new models for the popular Blood Angels Warhammer 40k faction, but these are still an order of magnitude less important than a new edition of Warhammer 40k.
Space Marine 2 fans enquiring about how to get started with tabletop Warhammer have been very visible in social media groups since the videogame launched. Until we hear something to the contrary from Games Workshop – perhaps when it publishes its half-year report on January 14 2025 – we think it likely that Space Marine 2 has driven a boom in new players picking up Warhammer 40k starter sets and painting their first Space Marines.
Licensing revenue from sales of Space Marine 2 will tail off, but sales of season passes to existing players should create a long tail of revenue, and a sequel also seems inevitable. Converting videogame players to the 40k hobby may be the more significant factor for long term sales growth.
If you came for the financial news but are intrigued by the 40k phenomenon, we have a guide explaining ‘what is Warhammer 40k?’ which covers the different elements of the hobby, game, fictional setting, and fandom. An upcoming documentary starring Napoleon Dynamite actor John Heder may also be of interest.
Source: Wargamer
